Car Wars
Ian Roberts
The
Guardian (Saturday
January 18, 2003)
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,877203,00.html]
The US economy needs oil like a junkie
needs heroin—and Iraq will supply its next fix
War in Iraq
is inevitable. That there would be war was decided by North American planners
in the mid-1920s. That it would be in Iraq was decided much more recently. The
architects of this war were not military planners but town planners. War is
inevitable not because of weapons of mass destruction, as claimed by the
political right, nor because of western imperialism, as claimed by the left.
The cause of this war, and probably the one that will follow, is car
dependence.
The US has
paved itself into a corner. Its physical and economic infrastructure is so
highly car dependent that the US is pathologically addicted to oil. Without
billions of barrels of precious black sludge being pumped into the veins of its
economy every year, the nation would experience painful and damaging
withdrawal.
The first
Model T Ford rolled off the assembly line in 1908 and was a miracle of mass
production. In the first decade of that century, car registrations in the US
increased from 8,000 to almost 500,000. Within the cities, buses replaced
trams, and then cars replaced buses. In 1932, General Motors bought up
America's tramways and then closed them down. But it was the urban planners who
really got America hooked. Car ownership offered the possibility of escape from
dirty, crowded cities to leafy garden suburbs and the urban planners provided
the escape routes.
Throughout
the 1920s and 1930s, America "road built" itself into a nation of
home-owning suburbanites. In the words of Joni Mitchell: "They paved
paradise and put up a parking lot." Cities such as Los Angeles, Dallas and
Phoenix were moulded by the private passenger car into vast urban sprawls which
are so widely spread that it is now almost impossible to service them
economically with public transport.
As the
cities sprawled, the motor manufacturing industry consolidated. Car-making is
now the main industrial employer in the world, dominated by five major groups
of which General Motors is the largest. The livelihood and landscape of North
Americans were forged by car-makers.
Motor
vehicles are responsible for about one-third of global oil use, but for nearly
two-thirds of US oil use. In the rest of the world, heating and power
generation account for most oil use. The increase in oil prices during the 1973
Arab oil embargo encouraged the substitution of other fuels in heating and
power generation, but in the transport sector there is little scope for oil
substitution in the short term.
Due to
artificially low oil and gasoline prices that did not reflect the true social
costs of production and use, there was little incentive to seek alternative
energy sources. The Arab oil embargo temporarily stimulated greater fuel
efficiency with the introduction of gasoline consumption standards, but the
increasing popularity of gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles over the past
decade has substantially reduced the average fuel efficiency of the US car
fleet.
The US
transportation sector is almost totally dependent on oil, and supplies are
running out. It is estimated that the total amount of oil that can be pumped out
of the earth is about 2,000 billion barrels and that world oil production will
peak in the next 10 to 15 years. Since even modest reductions in oil production
can result in major hikes in the cost of gasoline, the US administration is
well aware of the importance of ensuring oil supplies. Every major oil price
shock of the past 30 years was followed by a US recession and every major
recession was preceded by an oil price shock.
In 1997,
the Carnegie commission on preventing deadly conflict identified factors that
put states at risk. They include rapid population changes that outstrip the
capacity of the state to provide essential services, and the control of
valuable natural resources by a single group. Both factors are key motivators
in the war with Iraq. Sprawling suburban America needs oil and Saddam Hussein
is sitting on it.
The US
economy needs oil like a junkie needs heroin and Iraq has 112 billion barrels,
the largest supply in the world outside Saudi Arabia. Even before the first
shot has been fired, there have been discussions about how Iraq's oil reserves
will be carved up. All five permanent members of the UN security council have
international oil companies that have an interest in "regime change"
in Baghdad.
Car
dependence is a global public health issue of which gasoline wars are only one
facet. Every day about 3,000 people die and 30,000 people are seriously injured
on the world's roads in traffic crashes. More than 85% of the deaths are in low
and middle-income countries, with pedestrians, cyclists and bus passengers
bearing most of the burden. Most of the victims will never own a car, and many
are children.
By 2020,
road crashes will have moved from ninth to third place in the world ranking of
the burden of disease and injury, and will be in second place in developing
countries. That we accept this carnage as the collateral damage in a car-based
transport system indicates the strength and pervasiveness of car dependency.
Moreover, car travel has reduced our walking. One-quarter of all car journeys
are less than two miles. A 3km walk uses up about half the energy in a small
bar of chocolate. The same distance by car expends 10 times as much energy but
from the wrong source. We can make chocolate but oil reserves are finite.
Car use and
the corresponding decline in physical activity is an important cause of the
obesity epidemic in the US and UK, and physical inactivity increases the risks
of heart disease, diabetes, osteoporosis and hypertension. Car-based shopping
has turned many small towns into ghost towns and has severed the supportive
social networks of community interaction.
The first
gasoline war was waged in Kuwait and the second will be waged in Iraq. The
world must act now to prevent the third. On the brink of war with Iraq, Tony
Blair is playing the role of tough world leader. But transport, not Iraq, is
the truly tough issue. His deputy, John Prescott, tried and failed to deal with
car dependency and now the government is in policy retreat. Ken Livingstone,
who does not own a car and has leadership qualities that Blair lacks, may with
congestion charging succeed where others have failed, but his enemies have the
support of powerful lobby groups.
Those who oppose war in Iraq must work together to prevent the conflicts that will follow if we fail to tackle car dependency. We must reclaim the streets, promote walking and cycling, strengthen public transport, oppose new road construction and pay the full social cost of car use. We must argue for land-use policies that reduce the need for car travel. We need "urban villages" clustered around public transport nodes, not sprawling car-dependent conurbations. We can all play our part and we must act now.
Ian Roberts is
professor of public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine
[ian.roberts@LSHTM.ac.uk]